On March 15, Researcher Zhu Xuehong’s Team of the Business school, collaborate with the team of Professor Liu Gang of the University of Southern Denmark, and five other domestic and international units, published a paper entitled Battery technology and recycling alone will not save the electric mobility transition from future cobalt shortages in Nature Communications (Nature sub-publication, impact factor 14.9).

Under the global carbon-neutral environment, the growing demand for key metals in the development of clean energy technologies and their high external dependence have led to an increasingly prominent conflict between supply and demand of key metals, and the security of resource supply has been severely challenged. This study selects cobalt, the key metal with the most prominent contradiction between supply and demand, and simulates the historical and future material cycles of cobalt resources in the world and five key regions (China, the United States, Japan, the European Union and other regions) to investigate the impact of technological progress on the demand for cobalt resources and the security of supply.

It is found that in the long run, advances in battery technology and recycling technology can significantly reduce the demand for cobalt resources to mitigate the supply risk, but still cannot prevent the supply gap from appearing between 2028-2033, and there is heterogeneity in the degree of supply security and characteristics of cobalt resources in each region. The study calls on multiple stakeholders to take immediate action to promote technological innovation and increase the supply of primary cobalt resources in order to secure a green and low-carbon transition in the global transportation field in the future. As a major producer of power batteries and a major market for electric vehicles, China needs to be more proactive in addressing potential supply risks.

The study is supported by solid and abundant data, and on the basis of high technical and geographical resolution, it solves a major problem of cobalt resource demand forecasting and supply security path design in China, providing scientific basis and policy guidance to ensure the implementation of global and regional transportation green and low-carbon transition strategies, the achievement of carbon neutrality targets and the maintenance of China’s key metal resource security, as well as providing a research framework for similar studies on other key metals.

Figures show the cumulative material cycle of global cobalt resources (1998-2019)

Figures show the cumulative global multi-regional cobalt resource demand, reserves and resource security levels (2020-2050)

Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29022-z